Of course, we hope it never comes to this. We hope that polar cities are never necessary, and we hope that human ingenuity, and human intelligence and human will power to achieve the goal of stemming the tide of climate change and global warming will do the trick. But ....if this trick cannot be done, if the tipping point was passed long ago and we are not going to undo what we have done, then we just might need polar cities sometime in the far distant future. Again, repeat, far distant future. Not now. Like year 2500, for starters. Some people have told me we might need them earlier, say year 2100 or so. Or year 2399. Or maybe not until year 2999.
Thing is, we just might need them someday. And while we still have time and talent and money and fuel and transport and ideas and the UN and the IPCC and civilization, maybe the time to start thinking about polar cities -- 100 good quesitons about them -- is NOW!
So in the spirit of human imagination and peering into the future, here are 100 questions about polar cities that must be asked, and maybe you have more. Please add them to the comments section. And please comment on these questions, pro or con. We need all the imput we can get here. And when we say "we" here, we mean "us" -- the human experiment on Earth. We've been here a few million years, and we should have a few millions more years to go. Should. However, this global warming thing is not going to go away just by wishing and praying. We have some big battles to fight in the future, and one of them will be: who will get to live in these polar cities, who will administer them and guard them from marauders and roaming bandits, and how long will these polar cities be needed? Some people say maybe 100 years, maybe 1000 years, maybe 10,000 years, maybe 100,000 years. Thing is: big trouble ahead.
Question time.... . . . . . .
Visual images link: Go here first:
http://pcillu101.blogspot.com/
1. Who will govern these polar cities, the countries in which they are located -- Canada, Norway, Iceland, Russia, USA (Alaska), Greenland, Finland, Sweden, Chile, New Zealand, Antartica -- or the United Nations, or a new kind of world ''polar city'' government?
2. Who will protect, guard and maintain these polar cities? Will there be large armies of soldiers to guard the entrances? Private or public armies? Mercenaries a la Mad Max?
3. And who will pay for these guard services, and how will money to pay for such armies be generated in those far distant days?
4. Medical services, terminally ill, banking, clothing, food supplies, power generation, education of young, higher education, libraries, document archives, entertainment/leisure, movie theaters, computers, medical services, E.R., O.R., surgery, transportation within and outside the polar cities, old age, letting old people die early to conserve food resources?, chidlren born with disabilities, gender mix, men women children, pets, animals for food, power generation, fuel, paper, newspapers, computers, teachers, craftsmen, artisans, cooks, artificial foods, etc, money, banking, inheritance, etc
5. Who will be the teachers, and what will they teach, how will they teach, what materials, textbooks, will they use?
6. Religion: will a new religion arise with new kinds of pastors, or will the old religions of Judaism, Christianity, Islam, Shinto, Hinduism, Taosim, Buddhism, etc, survive and endure in these polar cities?
7. What kinds of counselling services will be provided for survivors of global warming, who may have to live in polar cities for several centuries, passing on their genes to a new generation, perhaps for 30 generations?
8. SOME ANSWERS HERE, FROM A REGULAR READER OF THIS BLOG: "I think the food source will be mold or fungus grown on recycled biomass (poop, leftovers, and bodies), but you can always say "hydroponics." I doubt open air surface agriculture and husbandry will be practical.
"I think the power source maybe nuclear, bio-electric, solar, or wind, but you can always say "renewable." I doubt fossil fuel, wood, or geo-thermal will be practical.
"I think polar cities will be constructed with stone and earth, but there is always the possibility that technological advances will allow it to be bio-materials. I doubt imported plastic, wood, or metal composites in large amounts will be practical.
"As far as the social, economic, and political structure of the community, it will probably be communal with a strong restrictive authority, but you can always say "democratic" (i.e. consensus based), although I doubt that will be practical. Privacy will be minimal, and the individual would have to subvert themselves to the group. There are models for this, both successful and unsuccessful.
"Obviously there will have to be draconian internal security, but less resource intensive external security, but you can always just let people think it will be like today's nation/states. The bottom line is that today's mindset would find such a stable isolated and resource scarce community obnoxious and prison like. Living on the surface of the Earth gives workable societies the luxury of personal freedom, but imagine such folly inside a self-contained structure. It sure would be nice if everyone in such a community was a model citizen, but individuals have free will, so expected deviance would have to be stifled harshly."
"I always thought that you citing the year 2500 was too conservative (why sugar coat it?)."
9. What kind of medical services, hospitals, clinics, medicines, drugs, operating rooms, will be available in these polar cities, and how will each generation of doctors be trained? How will operating rooms and hospitals be powered?
10. What kind of entertainment facilities will there be, movie theateres, email cafes, bowling alleys, TV rooms, libraries, bookstores, coffee shops?
BLOG BREAK: "By 2050 or so, the world population is expected to reach nine billion, essentially adding two Chinas to the number of people alive today," writes New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin in his blog titled DOT EARTH (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/). "Those billions will be seeking food, water and other resources on a planet where, scientists say, humans are already shaping climate and the web of life." [In Dot Earth, reporter Andrew C. Revkin examines efforts to balance human affairs with the planet’s limits. Supported in part by a John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship, Mr. Revkin tracks relevant news from suburbia to Siberia, and conducts an interactive exploration of trends and ideas with readers and experts.]
Blog Archive
7 comments:
Some answers from one blogger:
"I think the food source will be mold or fungus grown on recycled biomass (poop, leftovers, and bodies), but you can always say "hydroponics." I doubt open air surface agriculture and husbandry will be practical.
I think the power source maybe nuclear, bio-electric, solar, or wind, but you can always say "renewable." I doubt fossil fuel, wood, or geo-thermal will be practical.
I think it will be constructed with stone and earth, but there is always the possibility that technological advances will allow it to be bio-materials. I doubt imported plastic, wood, or metal composites in large amounts will be practical.
As far as the social, economic, and political structure of the community, it will probably be communal with a strong restrictive authority, but you can always say "democratic" (i.e. consensus based), although I doubt that will be practical. Privacy will be minimal, and the individual would have to subvert themselves to the group. There are models for this, both successful and unsuccessful.
Obviously there will have to be draconian internal security, but less resource intensive external security, but you can always just let people think it will be like today's nation/states.
The bottom line is that today's mindset would find such a stable isolated and resource scarce community obnoxious and prison like. Living on the surface of the earth gives workable societies the luxury of personal freedom, but imagine such folly inside a self-contained structure. It sure would be nice if everyone in such a community was a model citizen, but individuals have free will, so expected deviance would have to be stifled harshly.
It is so interesting that the symbol of Christiananity is the most horrible torture device known to man. The Roman empire lasted a pretty long time, and it was a hetrogenious culture. Deviance in a closed homogenious society is particularly harshly punished. That is the ugly formula for success.
Perhaps our current genome is unsuited, and we will become more like the Grays (i.e. small, big head, and telepathic)."
- B.
questions were:
1. what will the food source be for these polar cities?
2. ''''' power source,
and construction
> material? Furthermore,
what will be the social,
economic, and
political
> structure of the community.
Will they have an internal or external security
> apparatus?
What is the optimal size of such a community?
a few more questions:
medical services in polar cities
fuel sources
food supplies
libraries
cinema, DVD archives
bookstores
exercise rooms
transporation from one Polar City to another, intra polar city transport IPCT?
birthing facilitoes
communications HQ
records and birth certificates
education
college education
old age, senility
limited resources avail
how long will polar city era last? 500 years? 100 years? 10,900 years?
who will govern them
how govern them
how armies to protect them from invaders
animals and pets inside polar cities
cars, electric, vehicles
birth control
operating rooms for doctors
male female birth ratio
Antarctica! also in the PC loop?
relgion? Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Shintoism, Buddhist, what?
New Age religions?
prayer?
music
recreation facilities in PCs?
documentary moveis about PCs?
reporters, journalists in PCs?
money? what kind of currency used?
a new polar city coin and polar city paper bill?
sex. sexual activituies. etc
philotopshers?
memories of past. how preserve them?
To M,
i Came here from Dot Earth after I saw your post. I think the truth is
that the world, forget thinking just about America, the world, all the
nations of the world, all the people, not just "America", that the
world won't really wake up the reality of global warming
...until......it makes itself felt in such a way that millions of
people start dying off. Until then, even though the newspapers are
full of news stories and headlines about global warming, nothing will
be done to substantially change our wasteful and overpopulated human
lifestyles. Sorry to say that, M, but I feel that's the truth.
People are good, people have hearts, but this global warming issue
won't really make a dent until people suffer, really suffer, we are
programmed by our genes and history to deny global warming until
millions die off. It will take about 30 more generations, more or
less.
That means 30 more generations of bloggers, 30 more generations of
good reporters like Mr Revkin, and 30 more generations of good
questions like yours.
30 generations. That's a long time. Get used to it.
(he says with a sigh, even though he remains optimistic. go figure!)
Alisha
Ilove your comments! You are on the right track, what we need to do, in a collective way, is address these questions of how to organize such polar cities, how to govern them administer them, guard them, defend them, grow food for them, find fuel for them, find transport for them, find communication tools for them to other polar cities scattered around the world, a list of 100 questions come to mind. Please contribue:
1- 100 questions for polar cities in the future.
http://100qest101.blogspot.com/
RE: "i would like to think about how polar cities would be organized. especially with such advanced planning, it could be incredibly efficient, and there would be all kinds of architectural/aesthetic things to try that have never been done before. " YES YES YES! GOOD THINKING! I LOVE IT! (DANNY)
"the whole thing could be like one well-researched kinship garden!"
PLEASE TELL ME MORE ABOUT THE CONCEPT OF KINSHIP GARDEN. IT IS A POWERFUL TERM. DID YOU COIN IT. I LOVE IT. TELL ME MORE. EMAIL ME
Why Kinship Gardening?
Excerpted from Dr. Mushroom Kapuler
To give us insight into the fabric of life. The mosaic puzzle of living organisms has a deep internal pattern. This pattern is similar amongst all living things, especially between plants and animals. Using the history of generations to organize gardens is a way to generate visions into the higher order structure intrinsic to life.
To preserve a broad and deep sampling of plants by establishing gardens that maximize diversity. The idea is to explore the fabric of life by planting gardens that have as many different kinds of plants as possible. Thus we achieve several things simultaneously; conservation, diversification, education, exploration and discovery.
To establish sanctuaries that are harmonic subsets of the world flora. The destruction of habitats continues worldwide at an inconceivably rapid pace. The more we explore, the more we destroy. The result is the loss of whole communities of organisms. Our gardens can become alternative environments for the refugees from the struggle for the Earth. By using kinship layouts we develop new possibilities for growth, survival and success.
Promoting peace through permaculture, one seed at a time.
An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for
United States National Security
October 2003
By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall
Imagining the Unthinkable
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable – to push the
boundaries of currentresearch on climate change so we may better
understand the potential implications on UnitedStates national
security.We have interviewed leading climate change scientists,
conducted additional research, andreviewed several iterations of the
scenario with these experts. The scientists support thisproject, but
caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways.
First,they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen
in a few regions, ratherthan on globally. Second, they say the
magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.We have created a
climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is
plausible, andwould challenge United States national security in ways
that should be consideredimmediately.Executive SummaryThere is
substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will
occurduring the 21stcentury. Because changes have been gradual so far,
and are projectedto be similarly gradual in the future, the effects of
global warming have the potentialto be manageable for most nations.
Recent research, however, suggests that there is apossibility that
this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt
slowingof the ocean's thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to
harsher winter weatherconditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and
more intense winds in certain regionsthat currently provide a
significant fraction of the world's food production. Withinadequate
preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human
carryingcapacity of the Earth's environment.The research suggests that
once temperature rises above some threshold, adverseweather conditions
could develop relatively abruptly, with persistent changes in
theatmospheric circulation causing drops in some regions of 5-10
degrees Fahrenheit ina single decade. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests
that altered climatic patterns couldlast for as much as a century, as
they did when the ocean conveyor collapsed 8,200years ago, or, at the
extreme, could last as long as 1,000 years as they did during
theYounger Dryas, which began about 12,700 years ago.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Page 2
Abrupt Climate Change2In this report, as an alternative to the
scenarios of gradual climatic warming that areso common, we outline an
abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100-year event that
occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario
ischaracterized by the following conditions:• Annual average
temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asiaand North
America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe• Annual average
temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in keyareas
throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.• Drought
persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and
inthe water resource regions for major population centers in Europe
and easternNorth America.• Winter storms and winds intensify,
amplifying the impacts of the changes.Western Europe and the North
Pacific experience enhanced winds.The report explores how such an
abrupt climate change scenario could potentiallyde-stabilize the
geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and evenwar
due to resource constraints such as:1) Food shortages due to decreases
in net global agricultural production2) Decreased availability and
quality of fresh water in key regions due to shiftedprecipitation
patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts3) Disrupted access
to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminessAs global
and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around
theworld, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and
offensive. Nations withthe resources to do so may build virtual
fortresses around their countries, preservingresources for themselves.
Less fortunate nations especially those with ancientenmities with
their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food,
cleanwater, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense
priorities shift andthe goal is resources for survival rather than
religion, ideology, or national honor.This scenario poses new
challenges for the United States, and suggests several stepsto be
taken:• Improve predictive climate models to allow investigation of a
wider range ofscenarios and to anticipate how and where changes could
occur• Assemble comprehensive predictive models of the potential
impacts of abruptclimate change to improve projections of how climate
could influence food,water, and energy• Create vulnerability metrics
to anticipate which countries are most vulnerableto climate change and
therefore, could contribute materially to an increasinglydisorderly
and potentially violent world.
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Page 3
Abrupt Climate Change3• Identify no-regrets strategies such as
enhancing capabilities for watermanagement• Rehearse adaptive
responses• Explore local implications• Explore geo-engineering options
that control the climate.There are some indications today that global
warming has reached the thresholdwhere the thermohaline circulation
could start to be significantly impacted. Theseindications include
observations documenting that the North Atlantic is increasinglybeing
freshened by melting glaciers, increased precipitation, and fresh
water runoffmaking it substantially less salty over the past 40
years.This report suggests that, because of the potentially dire
consequences, the risk ofabrupt climate change, although uncertain and
quite possibly small, should beelevated beyond a scientific debate to
a U.S. national security concern.Climate ChangeColdDryStormsReduction
in CarryingCapacityFoodWaterEnergyNational SecurityImplicationsBorder
managementGlobal conflictEconomic malaise
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Abrupt Climate Change4An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its
Implications for UnitedStates National SecurityOctober
2003IntroductionWhen most people think about climate change, they
imagine gradual increases intemperature and only marginal changes in
other climatic conditions, continuingindefinitely or even leveling off
at some time in the future. The conventional wisdomis that modern
civilization will either adapt to whatever weather conditions we
faceand that the pace of climate change will not overwhelm the
adaptive capacity ofsociety, or that our efforts such as those
embodied in the Kyoto protocol will besufficient to mitigate the
impacts. The IPCC documents the threat of gradual climatechange and
its impact to food supplies and other resources of importance to
humanswill not be so severe as to create security threats. Optimists
assert that the benefitsfrom technological innovation will be able to
outpace the negative effects of climatechange.Climatically, the
gradual change view of the future assumes that agriculture
willcontinue to thrive and growing seasons will lengthen. Northern
Europe, Russia, andNorth America will prosper agriculturally while
southern Europe, Africa, andCentral and South America will suffer from
increased dryness, heat, water shortages,and reduced production.
Overall, global food production under many typical climatescenarios
increases. This view of climate change may be a dangerous act of
self-deception, as increasingly we are facing weather related
disasters -- more hurricanes,monsoons, floods, and dry-spells – in
regions around the world.Weather-related events have an enormous
impact on society, as they influence foodsupply, conditions in cities
and communities, as well as access to clean water andenergy. For
example, a recent report by the Climate Action Network of
Australiaprojects that climate change is likely to reduce rainfall in
the rangelands, which couldlead to a 15 per cent drop in grass
productivity. This, in turn, could lead toreductions in the average
weight of cattle by 12 per cent, significantly reducing beefsupply.
Under such conditions, dairy cows are projected to produce 30% less
milk,and new pests are likely to spread in fruit-growing areas.
Additionally, suchconditions are projected to lead to 10% less water
for drinking. Based on modelprojections of coming change conditions
such as these could occur in several foodproducing regions around the
world at the same time within the next 15-30years,challenging the
notion that society's ability to adapt will make climate
changemanageable.
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Abrupt Climate Change5With over 400 million people living in drier,
subtropical, often over-populated andeconomically poor regions today,
climate change and its follow-on effects pose asevere risk to
political, economic, and social stability. In less prosperous
regions,where countries lack the resources and capabilities required
to adapt quickly to moresevere conditions, the problem is very likely
to be exacerbated. For some countries,climate change could become such
a challenge that mass emigration results as thedesperate peoples seek
better lives in regions such as the United States that have
theresources to adaptation.Because the prevailing scenarios of gradual
global warming could cause effects likethe ones described above, an
increasing number of business leaders, economists,policy makers, and
politicians are concerned about the projections for further changeand
are working to limit human influences on the climate. But, these
efforts may notbe sufficient or be implemented soon enough.Rather than
decades or even centuries of gradual warming, recent evidence
suggeststhe possibility that a more dire climate scenario may actually
be unfolding. This iswhy GBN is working with OSD to develop a
plausible scenario for abrupt climatechange that can be used to
explore implications for food supply, health and disease,commerce and
trade, and their consequences for national security.While future
weather patterns and the specific details of abrupt climate
changecannot be predicted accurately or with great assurance, the
actual history of climatechange provides some useful guides. Our goal
is merely to portray a plausiblescenario, similar to one which has
already occurred in human experieince, for whichthere is reasonable
evidence so that we may further explore potential implications
forUnited States national security.Creating the Scenario: Reviewing
History
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Abrupt Climate Change6The above graphic, derived from sampling of an
ice core in Greenland, shows ahistorical tendency for particular
regions to experience periods of abrupt coolingwithin periods of
general warming.1The Cooling Event 8,200 Years AgoThe climate change
scenario outlined in this report is modeled on a century-longclimate
event that records from an ice core in Greenland indicate occurred
8,200years ago. Immediately following an extended period of warming,
much like thephase we appear to be in today, there was a sudden
cooling . Average annualtemperatures in Greenland dropped by roughly 5
degrees Fahrenheit, andtemperature decreases nearly this large are
likely to have occurred throughout theNorth Atlantic region. During
the 8,200 event severe winters in Europe and someother areas caused
glaciers to advance, rivers to freeze, and agricultural lands to
beless productive. Scientific evidence suggests that this event was
associated with, andperhaps caused by, a collapse of the ocean's
conveyor following a period of gradualwarming.Longer ice core and
oceanic records suggest that there may have been as many aseight rapid
cooling episodes in the past 730,000 years, and sharp reductions in
theocean conveyer--a phenomenon that may well be on the horizon – are
a likelysuspect in causing such shifts in climate.The Younger
DryasAbout 12,700 years ago, also associated with an apparent collapse
of thethermohaline circulation, there was a cooling of at least 27
degrees Fahrenheit inGreenland, and substantial change throughout the
North Atlantic region as well, thistime lasting 1,300 years. The
remarkable feature of the Younger Dryas event was thatit happened in a
series of decadal drops of around 5 degrees, and then the cold,
dryweather persisted for over 1,000 years. While this event had an
enormous effect onthe ocean and land surrounding Europe (causing
icebergs to be found as far south asthe coast of Portugal), its impact
would be more severe today – in our denselypopulated society. It is
the more recent periods of cooling that appear to beintimately
connected with changes to civilization, unrest, inhabitability of
oncedesirable land, and even the demise of certain populations.The
Little Ice AgeBeginning in the 14th century, the North Atlantic region
experienced a cooling thatlasted until the mid-19thcentury. This
cooling may have been caused by a significantslowing of the ocean
conveyor, although it is more generally thought that reducedsolar
output and/or volcanic eruptions may have prompted the oceanic
changes.This period, often referred to as the Little Ice Age, which
lasted from 1300 to 1850,brought severe winters, sudden climatic
shifts, and profound agricultural, economic,and political impacts to
Europe.1R.B. Alley, from The Two Mile Time Machine, 2000.
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Abrupt Climate Change7The period was marked by persistent crop
failures, famine, disease, and populationmigration, perhaps most
dramatically felt by the Norse, also known as the Vikings,who
inhabited Iceland and later Greenland. Ice formations along the coast
ofGreenland prevented merchants from getting their boats to Greenland
and fishermanfrom getting fish for entire winters. As a result,
farmers were forced to slaughtertheir poorly fed livestock -- because
of a lack of food both for the animals andthemselves -- but without
fish, vegetables, and grains, there was not enough food tofeed the
population.Famine, caused in part by the more severe climatic
conditions, is reported to havecaused tens of thousands of deaths
between 1315 and 1319 alone. The general coolingalso apparently drove
the Vikings out of Greenland -- and some say was acontributing cause
for that society's demise.While climate crises like the Little Ice Age
aren't solely responsible for the death ofcivilizations, it's
undeniable that they have a large impact on society. It has been
lessthan 175 years since 1 million people died due to the Irish Potato
famine, which alsowas induced in part by climate change.A Climate
Change Scenario For the FutureThe past examples of abrupt climate
change suggest that it is prudent to consider anabrupt climate change
scenario for the future as plausible, especially because somerecent
scientific findings suggest that we could be on the cusp of such an
event. Thefuture scenario that we have constructed is based on the
8,200 years before presentevent, which was much warmer and far briefer
than the Younger Dryas, but moresevere than the Little Ice Age. This
scenario makes plausible assumptions aboutwhich parts of the globe are
likely to be colder, drier, and windier. Althoughintensified research
could help to refine the assumptions, there is no way to confirmthe
assumptions on the basis of present models.Rather than predicting how
climate change will happen, our intent is to dramatizethe impact
climate change could have on society if we are unprepared for it.
Wherewe describe concrete weather conditions and implications, our aim
is to further thestrategic conversation rather than to accurately
forecast what is likely to happen witha high degree of certainty. Even
the most sophisticated models cannot predict thedetails of how the
climate change will unfold, which regions will be impacted inwhich
ways, and how governments and society might respond. However,
thereappears to be general agreement in the scientific community that
an extreme case likethe one depicted below is not implausible. Many
scientists would regard thisscenario as extreme both in how soon it
develops, how large, rapid and ubiquitousthe climate changes are. But
history tells us that sometimes the extreme cases do
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Abrupt Climate Change8occur, there is evidence that it might be and it
is DOD's job to consider suchscenarios.Keep in mind that the duration
of this event could be decades, centuries, or millenniaand it could
begin this year or many years in the future. In the climate
changedisruption scenario proposed here, we consider a period of
gradual warming leadingto 2010 and then outline the following ten
years, when like in the 8,200 event, anabrupt change toward cooling in
the pattern of weather conditions change isassumed to occur.Warming Up
to 2010Following the most rapid century of warming experienced by
modern civilization,the first ten years of the 21st century see an
acceleration of atmospheric warming, asaverage temperatures worldwide
rise by .5 degrees Fahrenheit per decade and by asmuch as 2 degrees
Fahrenheit per decade in the harder hit regions. Such
temperaturechanges would vary both by region and by season over the
globe, with these finerscale variations being larger or smaller than
the average change. What would be veryclear is that the planet is
continuing the warming trend of the late 20thcentury.Most of North
America, Europe, and parts of South America experience 30% moredays
with peak temperatures over 90 degrees Fahrenheit than they did a
century ago,with far fewer days below freezing. In addition to the
warming, there are erraticweather patterns: more floods, particularly
in mountainous regions, and prolongeddroughts in grain-producing and
coastal-agricultural areas. In general, the climateshift is an
economic nuisance, generally affecting local areas as storms,
droughts, andhot spells impact agriculture and other climate-dependent
activities. (More Frenchdoctors remain on duty in August, for
example.) The weather pattern, though, is notyet severe enough or
widespread enough to threaten the interconnected globalsociety or
United States national security.Warming Feedback LoopsAs temperatures
rise throughout the 20thcentury and into the early 2000s
potentpositive feedback loops kick-in, accelerating the warming from
.2 degrees Fahrenheit,to .4 and eventually .5 degrees Fahrenheit per
year in some locations. As the surfacewarms, the hydrologic cycle
(evaporation, precipitation, and runoff) acceleratescausing
temperatures to rise even higher. Water vapor, the most powerful
naturalgreenhouse gas, traps additional heat and brings average
surface air temperaturesup. As evaporation increases, higher surface
air temperatures cause drying in forestsand grasslands, where animals
graze and farmers grow grain. As trees die and burn,forests absorb
less carbon dioxide, again leading to higher surface air
temperaturesas well as fierce and uncontrollable forest fires Further,
warmer temperatures meltsnow cover in mountains, open fields,
high-latitude tundra areas, and permafrostthroughout forests in
cold-weather areas. With the ground absorbing more andreflecting less
of the sun's rays, temperatures increase even higher.
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Abrupt Climate Change9By 2005 the climatic impact of the shift is felt
more intensely in certain regionsaround the world. More severe storms
and typhoons bring about higher stormsurges and floods in low-lying
islands such as Tarawa and Tuvalu (near NewZealand). In 2007, a
particularly severe storm causes the ocean to break throughlevees in
the Netherlands making a few key coastal cities such as The
Hagueunlivable. Failures of the delta island levees in the Sacramento
River region in theCentral Valley of California creates an inland sea
and disrupts the aqueduct systemtransporting water from northern to
southern California because salt water can nolonger be kept out of the
area during the dry season. Melting along the Himalayanglaciers
accelerates, causing some Tibetan people to relocate. Floating ice in
thenorthern polar seas, which had already lost 40% of its mass from
1970 to 2003, ismostly gone during summer by 2010. As glacial ice
melts, sea levels rise and aswintertime sea extent decreases, ocean
waves increase in intensity, damaging coastalcities. Additionally
millions of people are put at risk of flooding around the
globe(roughly 4 times 2003 levels), and fisheries are disrupted as
water temperaturechanges cause fish to migrate to new locations and
habitats, increasing tensions overfishing rights.Each of these local
disasters caused by severe weather impacts surrounding areaswhose
natural, human, and economic resources are tapped to aid in recovery.
Thepositive feedback loops and acceleration of the warming pattern
begin to triggerresponses that weren't previously imagined, as natural
disasters and stormy weatheroccur in both developed and
lesser-developed nations. Their impacts are greatest inless-resilient
developing nations, which do not have the capacity built into
theirsocial, economic, and agricultural systems to absorb change.As
melting of the Greenland ice sheet exceeds the annual snowfall, and
there isincreasing freshwater runoff from high latitude precipitation,
the freshening ofwaters in the North Atlantic Ocean and the seas
between Greenland and Europeincreases. The lower densities of these
freshened waters in turn pave the way for asharp slowing of the
thermohaline circulation system.The Period from 2010 to
2020Thermohaline Circulation CollapseAfter roughly 60 years of slow
freshening, the thermohaline collapse begins in 2010,disrupting the
temperate climate of Europe, which is made possible by the warmflows
of the Gulf Stream (the North Atlantic arm of the global
thermohalineconveyor). Ocean circulation patterns change, bringing
less warm water north andcausing an immediate shift in the weather in
Northern Europe and eastern NorthAmerica. The North Atlantic Ocean
continues to be affected by fresh water comingfrom melting glaciers,
Greenland's ice sheet, and perhaps most importantly increasedrainfall
and runoff. Decades of high-latitude warming cause increased
precipitation
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Abrupt Climate Change10and bring additional fresh water to the salty,
dense water in the North, which isnormally affected mainly by warmer
and saltier water from the Gulf Stream. Thatmassive current of warm
water no longer reaches far into the North Atlantic. Theimmediate
climatic effect is cooler temperatures in Europe and throughout much
ofthe Northern Hemisphere and a dramatic drop in rainfall in many key
agriculturaland populated areas. However, the effects of the collapse
will be felt in fits and starts,as the traditional weather patterns
re-emerge only to be disrupted again—for a fulldecade.The dramatic
slowing of the thermohaline circulation is anticipated by some
oceanresearchers, but the United States is not sufficiently prepared
for its effects, timing, orintensity. Computer models of the climate
and ocean systems, though improved,were unable to produce sufficiently
consistent and accurate information forpolicymakers. As weather
patterns shift in the years following the collapse, it is notclear
what type of weather future years will bring. While some forecasters
believe thecooling and dryness is about to end, others predict a new
ice age or a global drought,leaving policy makers and the public
highly uncertain about the future climate andwhat to do, if anything.
Is this merely a "blip" of little importance or a fundamentalchange in
the Earth's climate, requiring an urgent massive human
response?Cooler, Drier, Windier Conditions for Continental Areas of
the Northern HemisphereThe Weather Report: 2010-2020• Drought persists
for the entire decade in critical agricultural regionsand in the areas
around major population centers in Europe andeastern North America.•
Average annual temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit
overAsia and North America and up to 6 degrees Fahrenheit in Europe.•
Temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key
areasthroughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.• Winter
storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impact of thechanges.
Western Europe and the North Pacific face enhancedwesterly winds.Each
of the years from 2010-2020 sees average temperature drops
throughoutNorthern Europe, leading to as much as a 6 degree Fahrenheit
drop in ten years.Average annual rainfall in this region decreases by
nearly 30%; and winds are up to15% stronger on average. The climatic
conditions are more severe in the continentalinterior regions of
northern Asia and North America.
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Abrupt Climate Change11The effects of the drought are more devastating
than the unpleasantness oftemperature decreases in the agricultural
and populated areas. With the persistentreduction of precipitation in
these areas, lakes dry-up, river flow decreases, and freshwater supply
is squeezed, overwhelming available conservation options anddepleting
fresh water reserves. The Mega-droughts begin in key regions in
SouthernChina and Northern Europe around 2010 and last throughout the
full decade. At thesame time, areas that were relatively dry over the
past few decades receive persistentyears of torrential rainfall,
flooding rivers, and regions that traditionally relied ondryland
agriculture.In the North Atlantic region and across northern Asia,
cooling is most pronounced inthe heart of winter -- December, January,
and February -- although its effects lingerthrough the seasons, the
cooling becomes increasingly intense and less predictable.As snow
accumulates in mountain regions, the cooling spreads to summertime.
Inaddition to cooling and summertime dryness, wind pattern velocity
strengthens asthe atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal.While
weather patterns are disrupted during the onset of the climatic change
aroundthe globe, the effects are far more pronounced in Northern
Europe for the first fiveyears after the thermohaline circulation
collapse. By the second half of this decade,the chill and harsher
conditions spread deeper into Southern Europe, North America,and
beyond. Northern Europe cools as a pattern of colder weather lengthens
thetime that sea ice is present over the northern North Atlantic
Ocean, creating a furthercooling influence and extending the period of
wintertime surface air temperatures.Winds pick up as the atmosphere
tries to deal with the stronger pole-to-equatortemperature gradient.
Cold air blowing across the European continent causesespecially harsh
conditions for agriculture. The combination of wind and drynesscauses
widespread dust storms and soil loss.Signs of incremental warming
appear in the southern most areas along the AtlanticOcean, but the
dryness doesn't let up. By the end of the decade, Europe's climate
ismore like Siberia's.An Alternative Scenario for the Southern
HemisphereThere is considerable uncertainty about the climate dynamics
of the SouthernHemisphere, mainly due to less paleoclimatic data being
available than for theNorthern Hemisphere. Weather patterns in key
regions in the Southern Hemispherecould mimic those of the Northern
Hemisphere, becoming colder, drier, and moresevere as heat flows from
the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, trying tothermodynamically
balance the climatic system. Alternatively, the cooling of theNorthern
Hemisphere may lead to increased warmth, precipitation, and storms
inthe south, as the heat normally transported away from equatorial
regions by theocean currents becomes trapped and as greenhouse gas
warming continues to
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Abrupt Climate Change12accelerate. Either way, it is not implausible
that abrupt climate change will bringextreme weather conditions to
many of the world's key population and growingregions at the same time
– stressing global food, water, and energy supply.The Regions: 2010 to
2020COLD,DRY,WINDYCOLD,DRY,WINDYDRYWET,STORMYDRY,INTERMITTENTMONSOONSThe
above graphic shows a simplified view of the weather patterns
portrayed in this scenario.Europe. Hit hardest by the climatic change,
average annual temperatures drop by 6degrees Fahrenheit in under a
decade, with more dramatic shifts along theNorthwest coast. The
climate in northwestern Europe is colder, drier, and windier,making it
more like Siberia. Southern Europe experiences less of a change but
stillsuffers from sharp intermittent cooling and rapid temperature
shifts. Reducedprecipitation causes soil loss to become a problem
throughout Europe, contributingto food supply shortages. Europe
struggles to stem emigration out of Scandinavianand northern European
nations in search of warmth as well as immigration fromhard-hit
countries in Africa and elsewhere.United States. Colder, windier, and
drier weather makes growing seasons shorterand less productive
throughout the northeastern United States, and longer and drierin the
southwest. Desert areas face increasing windstorms, while agricultural
areassuffer from soil loss due to higher wind speeds and reduced soil
moisture. Thechange toward a drier climate is especially pronounced in
the southern states.
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Abrupt Climate Change13Coastal areas that were at risk during the
warming period remain at risk, as risingocean levels continues along
the shores. The United States turns inward, committingits resources to
feeding its own population, shoring-up its borders, and managing
theincreasing global tension.China. China, with its high need for food
supply given its vast population, is hit hardby a decreased
reliability of the monsoon rains. Occasional monsoons during thesummer
season are welcomed for their precipitation, but have devastating
effects asthey flood generally denuded land. Longer, colder winters
and hotter summerscaused by decreased evaporative cooling because of
reduced precipitation stressalready tight energy and water supplies.
Widespread famine causes chaos andinternal struggles as a cold and
hungry China peers jealously across the Russian andwestern borders at
energy resources.Bangladesh. Persistent typhoons and a higher sea
level create storm surges thatcause significant coastal erosion,
making much of Bangladesh nearly uninhabitable.Further, the rising sea
level contaminates fresh water supplies inland, creating adrinking
water and humanitarian crisis. Massive emigration occurs, causing
tensionin China and India, which are struggling to manage the crisis
inside their ownboundaries.East Africa. Kenya, Tanzania, and
Mozambique face slightly warmer weather, butare challenged by
persistent drought. Accustomed to dry conditions, these countrieswere
the least influenced by the changing weather conditions, but their
food supplyis challenged as major grain producing regions
suffer.Australia. A major food exporter, Australia struggles to supply
food around theglobe, as its agriculture is not severely impacted by
more subtle changes in itsclimate. But the large uncertainties about
Southern Hemisphere climate change makethis benign conclusion
suspect.Impact on Natural ResourcesThe changing weather patterns and
ocean temperatures affect agriculture, fish andwildlife, water and
energy. Crop yields, affected by temperature and water stress aswell
as length of growing season fall by 10-25% and are less predictable as
keyregions shift from a warming to a cooling trend. As some
agricultural pests die dueto temperature changes, other species spread
more readily due to the dryness andwindiness – requiring alternative
pesticides or treatment regiments. Commercialfishermen that typically
have rights to fish in specific areas will be ill equipped forthe
massive migration of their prey.
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Abrupt Climate Change14With only five or six key grain-growing regions
in the world (US, Australia,Argentina, Russia, China, and India),
there is insufficient surplus in global foodsupplies to offset severe
weather conditions in a few regions at the same time – letalone four
or five. The world's economic interdependence make the United
Statesincreasingly vulnerable to the economic disruption created by
local weather shifts inkey agricultural and high population areas
around the world. Catastrophic shortagesof water and energy supply –
both which are stressed around the globe today –cannot be quickly
overcome.Impact on National SecurityHuman civilization began with the
stabilization and warming of the Earth's climate.A colder unstable
climate meant that humans could neither develop agriculture
orpermanent settlements. With the end of the Younger Dryas and the
warming andstabilization that followed, humans could learn the rhythms
of agriculture and settlein places whose climate was reliably
productive. Modern civilization has neverexperienced weather
conditions as persistently disruptive as the ones outlined in
thisscenario. As a result, the implications for national security
outlined in this report areonly hypothetical. The actual impacts would
vary greatly depending on the nuancesof the weather conditions, the
adaptability of humanity, and decisions bypolicymakers.Violence and
disruption stemming from the stresses created by abrupt changes in
theclimate pose a different type of threat to national security than
we are accustomed totoday. Military confrontation may be triggered by
a desperate need for naturalresources such as energy, food and water
rather than by conflicts over ideology,religion, or national honor.
The shifting motivation for confrontation would alterwhich countries
are most vulnerable and the existing warning signs for
securitythreats.There is a long-standing academic debate over the
extent to which resourceconstraints and environmental challenges lead
to inter-state conflict. While somebelieve they alone can lead nations
to attack one another, others argue that theirprimary effect is to act
as a trigger of conflict among countries that face pre-existingsocial,
economic, and political tension. Regardless, it seems undeniable that
severeenvironmental problems are likely to escalate the degree of
global conflict.Co-founder and President of the Pacific Institute for
Studies in Development,Environment, and Security, Peter Gleick
outlines the three most fundamentalchallenges abrupt climate change
poses for national security:1. Food shortages due to decreases in
agricultural production2. Decreased availability and quality of fresh
water due to flooding and droughts3. Disrupted access to strategic
minerals due to ice and storms
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Abrupt Climate Change15In the event of abrupt climate change, it's
likely that food, water, and energy resourceconstraints will first be
managed through economic, political, and diplomatic meanssuch as
treaties and trade embargoes. Over time though, conflicts over land
andwater use are likely to become more severe – and more violent. As
states becomeincreasingly desperate, the pressure for action will
grow.Decreasing Carrying CapacityThe graphic shows how abruptclimate
change may causehuman carrying capacity to fallbelow usage of the
eco-system,suggesting insufficientresources leading to acontraction of
the populationthrough war, disease, andfamine.Today, carrying
capacity, which is the ability for the Earth and its natural
ecosystemsincluding social, economic, and cultural systems to support
the finite number ofpeople on the planet, is being challenged around
the world. According to theInternational Energy Agency, global demand
for oil will grow by 66% in the next 30years, but it's unclear where
the supply will come from. Clean water is similarlyconstrained in many
areas around the world. With 815 million people receivinginsufficient
sustenance worldwide, some would say that as a globe, we're living
wellabove our carrying capacity, meaning there are not sufficient
natural resources tosustain our behavior.Many point to technological
innovation and adaptive behavior as a means formanaging the global
ecosystem. Indeed it has been technological progress that hasincreased
carrying capacity over time. Over centuries we have learned how
toproduce more food, energy and access more water. But will the
potential of newtechnologies be sufficient when a crisis like the one
outlined in this scenario hits?Abrupt climate change is likely to
stretch carrying capacity well beyond its alreadyprecarious limits.
And there's a natural tendency or need for carrying capacity tobecome
realigned. As abrupt climate change lowers the world's carrying
capacityaggressive wars are likely to be fought over food, water, and
energy. Deaths fromwar as well as starvation and disease will decrease
population size, which overtime,will re-balance with carrying
capacity.
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Abrupt Climate Change16When you look at carrying capacity on a
regional or state level it is apparent thatthose nations with a high
carrying capacity, such as the United States and WesternEurope, are
likely to adapt most effectively to abrupt changes in climate,
because,relative to their population size, they have more resources to
call on. This may giverise to a more severe have, have-not mentality,
causing resentment toward thosenations with a higher carrying
capacity. It may lead to finger-pointing and blame, asthe wealthier
nations tend to use more energy and emit more greenhouse gasses suchas
CO2 into the atmosphere. Less important than the scientifically
provenrelationship between CO2 emissions and climate change is the
perception thatimpacted nations have – and the actions they take.The
Link Between Carrying Capacity and WarfareSteven LeBlanc, Harvard
archaeologist and author of a new book called CarryingCapacity,
describes the relationship between carrying capacity and warfare.
Drawingon abundant archaeological and ethnological data, LeBlanc
argues that historicallyhumans conducted organized warfare for a
variety of reasons, including warfareover resources and the
environment. Humans fight when they outstrip the carryingcapacity of
their natural environment. Every time there is a choice between
starvingand raiding, humans raid. From hunter/gatherers through
agricultural tribes,chiefdoms, and early complex societies, 25% of a
population's adult males die whenwar breaks out.Peace occurs when
carrying capacity goes up, as with the invention of agriculture,newly
effective bureaucracy, remote trade and technological breakthroughs.
Also alarge scale die-back such as from plague can make for peaceful
times---Europe afterits major plagues, North American natives after
European diseases decimated theirpopulations (that's the difference
between the Jamestown colony failure andPlymouth Rock success). But
such peaceful periods are short-lived becausepopulation quickly rises
to once again push against carrying capacity, and warfareresumes.
Indeed, over the millennia most societies define themselves according
totheir ability to conduct war, and warrior culture becomes deeply
ingrained. Themost combative societies are the ones that
survive.However in the last three centuries, LeBlanc points out,
advanced states havesteadily lowered the body count even though
individual wars and genocides havegrown larger in scale. Instead of
slaughtering all their enemies in the traditionalway, for example,
states merely kill enough to get a victory and then put thesurvivors
to work in their newly expanded economy. States also use their
ownbureaucracies, advanced technology, and international rules of
behavior to raisecarrying capacity and bear a more careful
relationship to it.All of that progressive behavior could collapse if
carrying capacities everywherewere suddenly lowered drastically by
abrupt climate change. Humanity wouldrevert to its norm of constant
battles for diminishing resources, which the battles
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Abrupt Climate Change17themselves would further reduce even beyond the
climatic effects. Once againwarfare would define human life.Conflict
Scenario Due to Climate ChangeEuropeAsiaUnited States2010-20202012:
Severe droughtand cold pushScandinavianpopulationssouthward, push
backfrom EU2015: Conflict withinthe EU over food andwater supply leads
toskirmishes andstrained diplomaticrelations2018: Russia joins
EU,providing energyresources2020: Migration fromnorthern countriessuch
as Holland andGermany towardSpain and Italy2010: Borderskirmishes
andconflict in Bangladesh,India, and China, asmass migration
occurstoward Burma2012: Regionalinstability leads Japanto develop
forceprojection capability2015: Strategicagreement betweenJapan and
Russia forSiberia and Sakhalinenergy resources2018: China intervenesin
Kazakhstan toprotect pipelinesregularly disrupted byrebels and
criminals.2010: Disagreementswith Canada andMexico over waterincrease
tension2012: Flood of refugeesto southeast U.S. andMexico
fromCaribbean islands2015: Europeanmigration to UnitedStates
(mostlywealthy)2016: Conflict withEuropean countriesover fishing
rights2018: Securing NorthAmerica, U.S. formsintegrated
securityalliance with Canadaand Mexico2020: Department ofDefense
managesborders and refugeesfrom Caribbean andEurope.2020-20302020:
Increasing:skirmishes over waterand immigration2022: Skirmishbetween
France andGermany overcommercial access toRhine2025: EU
nearscollapse2027: Increasingmigration toMediterraneancountries such
asAlgeria, Morocco,Egypt, and Israel2030: Nearly 10% ofEuropean
population2020: Persistentconflict in South EastAsia; Burma,
Laos,Vietnam, India, China2025: Internalconditions in
Chinadeterioratedramatically leadingto civil war and borderwars.2030:
Tension growingbetween China andJapan over Russianenergy*2020: Oil
pricesincrease as security ofsupply is threatenedby conflicts in
PersianGulf and Caspian2025: Internal strugglein Saudi Arabia
bringsChinese and U.S.naval forces to Gulf ,indirect confrontation
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Abrupt Climate Change18moves to a differentcountryThe chart above
outlines some potential military implications of climate changeThe two
most likely reactions to a sudden drop in carrying capacity due to
climatechange are defensive and offensive.The United States and
Australia are likely to build defensive fortresses around
theircountries because they have the resources and reserves to achieve
self-sufficiency.With diverse growing climates, wealth, technology,
and abundant resources, theUnited States could likely survive
shortened growing cycles and harsh weatherconditions without
catastrophic losses. Borders will be strengthened around thecountry to
hold back unwanted starving immigrants from the Caribbean islands
(anespecially severe problem), Mexico, and South America. Energy
supply will beshored up through expensive (economically, politically,
and morally) alternativessuch as nuclear, renewables, hydrogen, and
Middle Eastern contracts. Peskyskirmishes over fishing rights,
agricultural support, and disaster relief will becommonplace. Tension
between the U.S. and Mexico rise as the U.S. reneges on the1944 treaty
that guarantees water flow from the Colorado River. Relief workers
willbe commissioned to respond to flooding along the southern part of
the east coast andmuch drier conditions inland. Yet, even in this
continuous state of emergency theU.S. will be positioned well compared
to others. The intractable problem facing thenation will be calming
the mounting military tension around the world.As famine, disease, and
weather-related disasters strike due to the abrupt climatechange, many
countries' needs will exceed their carrying capacity. This will create
asense of desperation, which is likely to lead to offensive aggression
in order toreclaim balance. Imagine eastern European countries,
struggling to feed theirpopulations with a falling supply of food,
water, and energy, eyeing Russia, whosepopulation is already in
decline, for access to its grain, minerals, and energy supply.Or,
picture Japan, suffering from flooding along its coastal cities and
contaminationof its fresh water supply, eying Russia's Sakhalin Island
oil and gas reserves as anenergy source to power desalination plants
and energy-intensive agriculturalprocesses. Envision Pakistan, India,
and China – all armed with nuclear weapons –skirmishing at their
borders over refugees, access to shared rivers, and arable
land.Spanish and Portuguese fishermen might fight over fishing rights
– leading toconflicts at sea. And, countries including the United
States would be likely to bettersecure their borders. With over 200
river basins touching multiple nations, we canexpect conflict over
access to water for drinking, irrigation, and transportation.
TheDanube touches twelve nations, the Nile runs though nine, and the
Amazon runsthrough seven.
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Abrupt Climate Change19In this scenario, we can expect alliances of
convenience. The United States andCanada may become one, simplifying
border controls. Or, Canada might keep itshydropower—causing energy
problems in the US. North and South Korea may alignto create one
technically savvy and nuclear-armed entity. Europe may act as aunified
block – curbing immigration problems between European nations –
andallowing for protection against aggressors. Russia, with its
abundant minerals, oil,and natural gas may join Europe.In this world
of warring states, nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. As
coolingdrives up demand, existing hydrocarbon supplies are stretched
thin. With a scarcityof energy supply – and a growing need for access
-- nuclear energy will become acritical source of power, and this will
accelerate nuclear proliferation as countriesdevelop enrichment and
reprocessing capabilities to ensure their national security.China,
India, Pakistan, Japan, South Korea, Great Britain, France, and
Germany willall have nuclear weapons capability, as will Israel, Iran,
Egypt, and North Korea.Managing the military and political tension,
occasional skirmishes, and threat of warwill be a challenge. Countries
such as Japan, that have a great deal of social cohesion(meaning the
government is able to effectively engage its population in
changingbehavior) are most likely to fair well. Countries whose
diversity already producesconflict, such as India, South Africa and
Indonesia, will have trouble maintainingorder. Adaptability and access
to resources will be key. Perhaps the most frustratingchallenge abrupt
climate change will pose is that we'll never know how far we areinto
the climate change scenario and how many more years – 10, 100, 1000
--- remainbefore some kind of return to warmer conditions as the
thermohaline circulationstarts up again. When carrying capacity drops
suddenly, civilization is faced withnew challenges that today seem
unimaginable.Could This Really Happen?Ocean, land, and atmosphere
scientists at some of the world's most prestigiousorganizations have
uncovered new evidence over the past decade suggesting that
theplausibility of severe and rapid climate change is higher than most
of the scientificcommunity and perhaps all of the political community
is prepared for. If it occurs,this phenomenon will disrupt current
gradual global warming trends, adding toclimate complexity and lack of
predictability. And paleoclimatic evidence suggeststhat such an abrupt
climate change could begin in the near future.The Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institute reports that seas surrounding the
NorthAtlantic have become less salty in the past 40 years, which in
turn freshens the deepocean in the North Atlantic. This trend could
pave the way for ocean conveyorcollapse or slowing and abrupt climate
change.
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Abrupt Climate Change2034.9634.9434.9234.9034.8834.8634.8434.8234.801970197519801985199019952000Representational
GraphSALINITYMEDIANYEARNortheast AtlanticDenmark StraitLabrador SeaThe
above graphic shows early evidence that a thermohaline circulation
collapse may be imminent,as the North Atlantic is increasingly being
freshened by surrounding seas that have become lesssalty over the past
40 years.22Adapted from I Yashayaev, Bedford Institute of Oceanography
as seen in Abrupt Climate Change, InevitableSurprises, National
Research Council.
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Abrupt Climate Change21The above two headlines appeared in Nature
Magazine in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Theysuggest that the North
Atlantic salinity level may lower, increasing the likelihood of
athermohaline circulation collapse.With at least eight abrupt climate
change events documented in the geologicalrecord, it seems that the
questions to ask are: When will this happen? What will theimpacts be?
And, how can we best prepare for it? Rather than: Will this really
happen?Are we prepared for history to repeat itself again?There is a
debate in newspapers around the globe today on the impact of
humanactivity on climate change. Because economic prosperity is
correlated with energyuse and greenhouse gas emissions, it is often
argued that economic progress leads toclimate change. Competing
evidence suggests that climate change can occur,regardless of human
activity as seen in climate events that happened prior to
modernsociety.It's important to understand human impacts on the
environment – both what's doneto accelerate and decelerate (or perhaps
even reverse) the tendency toward climatechange. Alternative fuels,
greenhouse gas emission controls, and conservation effortsare
worthwhile endeavors. In addition, we should prepare for the
inevitable effectsof abrupt climate change – which will likely come
regardless of human activity.Here are some preliminary recommendations
to prepare the United States for abruptclimate change:1) Improve
predictive climate models. Further research should be conducted somore
confidence can be placed in predictions about climate change.
Thereneeds to be a deeper understanding of the relationship between
oceanpatterns and climate change. This research should focus on
historical, current,and predictive forces, and aim to further our
understanding of abrupt climatechange, how it may happen, and how
we'll know it's occurring.2) Assemble comprehensive predictive models
of climate change impacts.Substantial research should be done on the
potential ecological, economic,social, and political impact of abrupt
climate change. Sophisticated modelsand scenarios should be developed
to anticipate possible local conditions. Asystem should be created to
identify how climate change may impact theglobal distribution of
social, economic, and political power. These analysescan be used to
mitigate potential sources of conflict before they happen.3) Create
vulnerability metrics. Metrics should be created to understand
acountry's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Metrics may
includeclimatic impact on existing agricultural, water, and mineral
resources;technical capability; social cohesion and adaptability.
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Abrupt Climate Change224) Identify no-regrets strategies. No-regrets
strategies should be identified andimplemented to ensure reliable
access to food supply and water, and to ensurenational security.5)
Rehearse adaptive responses. Adaptive response teams should be
establishedto address and prepare for inevitable climate driven events
such as massivemigration, disease and epidemics, and food and water
supply shortages.6) Explore local implications. The first-order
effects of climate change are local.While we can anticipate changes in
pest prevalence and severity and changesin agricultural productivity,
one has to look at very specific locations andconditions to know which
pests are of concern, which crops and regions arevulnerable, and how
severe impacts will be. Such studies should beundertaken, particularly
in strategically important food producing regions.7) Explore
geo-engineering options that control the climate. Today, it is
easierto warm than to cool the climate, so it might be possible to add
various gases,such as hydrofluorocarbons, to the atmosphere to offset
the affects of cooling.Such actions, of course, would be studied
carefully, as they have the potentialto exacerbate conflicts among
nations.ConclusionIt is quite plausible that within a decade the
evidence of an imminent abrupt climateshift may become clear and
reliable. It is also possible that our models will betterenable us to
predict the consequences. In that event the United States will need
totake urgent action to prevent and mitigate some of the most
significant impacts.Diplomatic action will be needed to minimize the
likelihood of conflict in the mostimpacted areas, especially in the
Caribbean and Asia. However, large populationmovements in this
scenario are inevitable. Learning how to manage thosepopulations,
border tensions that arise and the resulting refugees will be
critical.New forms of security agreements dealing specifically with
energy, food and waterwill also be needed. In short, while the US
itself will be relatively better off and withmore adaptive capacity,
it will find itself in a world where Europe will be
strugglinginternally, large number so refugees washing up on its
shores and Asia in seriouscrisis over food and water. Disruption and
conflict will be endemic features of life.
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